How does the "medicine market off-season" come after the ascending market?

At the beginning of last year, the price of the market in Ganzhou was only about 19 yuan, and after a year of “breakout”, the price had reached 27 yuan at the end of the year, a 42% increase. After such a substantial increase, it entered. In 2014, the Cimician market was difficult to break through, and the market sources of goods were generally sold off, and the prices were slightly adjusted back. In this article, the author will analyze the pros and cons of affecting the hemp market in a comprehensive analysis of the subsequent trend.

First, analysis of support factors for Cimica market

1, the supply of wild resources

Cimicifuga as a wild resource supply species, the amount of resources is negatively correlated with the price, and the less resource reserves, the higher the price. Cimicifuga mainly grows in northeastern China and Inner Mongolia. With annual disorderly excavation, the amount of resources is reduced. Especially under the stimulation of high prices that have been rapidly increased in 2009-2011, a lot of resources have been excavated and sold, resulting in the production of cohosh. Reduced production. Since 2010, the annual production of Cimicifolia has been reduced from 800 tons to 750 tons and 700 tons. The continuous reduction in output and the difficulty in recovering wild resources have provided support for the Cimica market.

2. Increased difficulty in harvesting and processing

C. commune mostly grows in mountain forest margins, forests, or roadside grasslands between 1700-2300 meters above sea level. The difficulty of harvesting is greater, and the destructive excavation of resources will reduce the resource density and harvest the same quality. The time and effort put on the supply of goods have increased significantly. Take the northeastern region as an example, the local labor value is at least 100 yuan a day, and the amount of cohosh that people can pick up each day is generally not more than 4 kg of dry goods. Compared with working outside, the income is not ideal. At the same time, the processing of Cimicifuga after harvesting is cumbersome. Not only do we need to remove the dirt and wash it, but we must also use fire to remove the fibrous roots. The increase in the difficulty of harvesting and processing, and the increase in labor cost input, have also driven the rise of Cimica.

Second, analysis of drag factors in Cimica market

1, North Korea to the goods to add

Although Cimicifolia as a wild resource reserves in China decreases year by year, but in addition to China and the North Korea also have resources distribution, and the sources of the North Dynasty into the country from the northeast region each year, due to the advantages of the North Dynasty Cimicifuga, the impact of domestic Cimicifuga . Once the prices have risen sharply, the volume of shipments from the Northern Dynasties has increased significantly, which has caused significant drag on the market. Taking the high price period of Cimicifuga in 2010 as an example, the historically high price of Cimicifuga more than 30 yuan greatly stimulated the arrival of goods from the North Dynasty, and more business operators disclosed that the volume in the past year was more than 500 tons... It can be seen that even if there is no shortage of domestic resources, As long as there is a continuous supply of goods from the North Dynasty, the high price of Cimica can only be a flash in the pan.

2, less dosage, concern less business

The annual consumption of Cimicifuga stays at around 1,000 tons, which is relatively small. Market operators are concerned about fewer businesses, and their popularity is not strong. It is difficult to form a strong driving force for the market. Such varieties basically have a greater impact on the market and generally have less participation.

3, inventory is still in volume

Although the resources of Cimicifolia are reduced, the resources for excavation under the high price stimulus in 2009-2010 and the cargo volume in the Northern Dynasties are both large. However, in 2011 and 2012, the Cimica market went sour, and some of the holders were reluctant to sell their goods, and the actual supply of goods was not properly digested. Even if the price rises in 2013 and some of the sources of goods are consumed, the amount of cohosh inventories is still in volume, and there is no longer a condition for further flushing after rising sharply.

Third, the market trend of Cimicifuga

Through the above analysis of the support and drag factors for the Cimica market, how does the Cimiculant market develop in the end? Although the background of wild cohosh as a support for Cimicifuga, but the previous sharp increase takes time to digest and adjust, at the same time in the Northern Dynasties, the arrival of goods and stocks, the off-season adverse drug market and other unfavorable factors, the short-term market or a slight correction However, in the long-term, there are still positive factors for colibri, which are worthy of attention.