Agricultural products continue to strengthen, beware of corn

Recently, domestic agricultural product futures have continued to emerge strong, and many varieties have reached new heights. Industry sources said that the agricultural market outlook will fluctuate upward overall, and cotton and sugar are particularly optimistic. This year's surge in corn imports has not led the market to speculate: whether corn will follow the footsteps of soybeans, and increasingly rely on imports.

Domestic agricultural products soared yesterday, domestic agricultural product futures basically closed up. Strong wheat 1105 main contract closing price of 2574 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.06%. Soybeans continued the rally on the previous day and closed at 4,092 yuan, with an increase in trading volume. The main contract of corn 1105 closed at 2,046 yuan/ton, up by 0.49%. Zheng Sugar closed at 5,609 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61%. Zheng Cotton maintained its gains and closed at 18,965 yuan per ton, up 1.17%.

For the recent sharp increase in agricultural products, Shanghai-based mid-term analyst Jing Cheng believes that the main short-term double-drift approach, making the recent market demand tends to flourish. Specifically, food prices rose slightly and soyoil prices remained flat. From the perspective of futures, the main contracts of agricultural products have risen to varying degrees. In addition, the prices of international agricultural products have also continued to rise in the near future, especially soybean prices, which have an impact on the domestic soybean sector.

Bing Futures analyst Li Xiaoli said that the recent surge in agricultural products was mainly due to the transmission of the US dollar rally on Friday. In addition, several varieties such as cotton and ale maintained the previous rally and continued to lead gains.

Many in the industry believe that the futures of agricultural product futures will be stronger overall, while sugar, cotton and other varieties are particularly optimistic. Ju Cheng believes that, as a whole, agricultural products is a volatile market, but there are pressures for a short-term correction. Particular attention should be paid to the upcoming CPI data. If the data exceeds market expectations, it is not ruled out that the state will take some measures on a temporary basis in order to control inflation.

Yangtze River Futures analyst Wang Jian also summarized the overall trend of agricultural products in the latter part of the period as "turbulent upwards." He said that the pace of cotton, sugar and other agricultural products is different, and these two varieties are likely to accelerate upward.

Guotai Junan Futures Analyst Zhou Xiaoqiu also said that he is most optimistic about the trend of cotton and sugar. "Cotton and sugar cane production was cut last year. It is currently at a time when there is no connection between green and yellow, and the inventory is very tight. As a result, spot prices have risen and futures prices have risen higher in the same period. The market still has room to rise."

A field survey conducted by the reporter found that the planting area of ​​the main cotton producing areas has indeed decreased this year, and the supply and demand gap still exists. Industry insiders are looking at the cotton prices in multiple periods. As for sugar, industry sources disclosed to reporters that after many investigations, fewer and fewer sugarcane plants were grown in Guangxi, and more and more cash crops were being planted. It is expected that the maximum sugar output in the future will not exceed 20 million tons, so the price of sucrose will rise later. .

Whether corn will repeat the mistakes of soybeans According to industry insiders, China’s annual consumption of corn is 160 million tons, and the import quota for 2010 is 7.2 million tons. Overall, the import volume is still small, but the substantial increase in imports is an indisputable fact. CITIC Securities' latest research report shows that in July and June 2010, China’s corn imports jumped to 193,900 tons and 64,700 tons respectively, an increase of 148.4 times and 54.2 times year-on-year.

The reporter learned that China’s soybean import dependency is high because the soybean processing industry accelerates its development after China’s accession to the WTO. Domestic soybean production is far from meeting soybean demand, while foreign soybean prices are low, and import volume is also a market choice. . In 2004, when foreign soybean prices soared, the soybean processing industry in the country was declining.

So, whether domestic corn will follow the footsteps of soybeans and become an import-dependent agricultural product? In this regard, the analysts have different views. Dongfeng Futures analyst Bao Hongbo told reporters: “In agricultural products, corn is most likely to become like soybeans, relying on imports more and more. At present, the degree of external dependence on soybeans is 80%, and corn is less than 1%. However, China's corn consumption has grown steadily and steadily every year. Although China does not rely heavily on imports, imports are slowly expanding. It is believed that the linkage between domestic and foreign corn prices will increase.

A brokerage analyst who declined to be named told the reporter that after three or four years, China is likely to become a corn importer. Large-scale pig farming is better in the United States and uses soybean meal corn feed formula, while the EU mainly promotes medium-sized farming mode and uses coarse grains for feeding. Since the construction of feed mills in China, the US feed formulation has basically been adopted. However, small and medium-sized farmers in non-food-producing areas in China still raise pigs with muddy water and miscellaneous grains. With the rapid increase in the concentration of large-scale live pig breeding in China after 2007, the demand for corn from livestock and poultry farming will further increase. In the future, China will probably import large quantities of corn, and the price of corn may be constrained by the United States.

Yang Xiaoyun, a mid-term analyst in Shanghai, said that corn would not become an import-dependent agricultural product. “The country will not allow food to be controlled by other countries because food is the lifeblood of the country. This year, the country’s large import of corn should be considered as a last resort, in order to prevent the soaring price of domestic corn. It is expected that this year's corn production should not be less than 150 million, or even about 160 million, which can basically meet the demand."

Analyst Li Xiaoli also said that domestic corn can basically achieve self-sufficiency, unless the downstream processing industry has seen rapid growth, and the country has not liberalized the import of genetically modified corn in the United States. Genetically modified corn is currently not fully recognized.

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