China's food issue is fundamentally a question of food prices
The frequency of the word “food†has been particularly high in the recent period because the price of food in various countries has begun to rise under the influence of natural disasters. Will China's food prices continue to rise? Will there be food security issues? Many experts hold negative opinions on this, but I have always been vigilant.
Considering China's food security issues, we should consider China's current agricultural production model. Food production is not like pig production. When farmers no longer raise pigs, they have spawned large numbers of pig farmers, thus forming economies of scale. However, it is difficult for grain production to produce scale benefits such as raising pigs. This is determined by China's land distribution system. The current apportionment of arable land is based on the head count of each family. They prefer to reclamation rather than give up land to others. When grain can make money, farmers are obviously reluctant to waste land; when they lose money, they will only plant their own little fields, and other cultivated land will be lost. This situation already exists in many places.
Although the country has increased the amount of grain subsidies and raised the price of grain, it has not been able to catch up with the rate of increase in production costs. Data shows that in the last 25 years, the price of seeds has skyrocketed by several dozen times. This is true for fertilizers, pesticides, diesel oil, and herbicides, but the price of commercial grain has only increased by about six times.
American scholar Lester Brown, who wrote a report "Who Will Feed China" back in 1994, said that China will have a grain gap of 207 million tons to 369 million tons (in 20 years), quite At present, the world's total grain exports (200 million tons) are 1 to 2 times. Assuming his words are established, will China be able to import so much food? The answer is that China has this ability because China has a huge trade surplus. The question is, who can provide so much food?
On the one hand, China is importing food, and on the other hand, farmland has been abandoned. Brown said that China’s food issue is a technical issue, but it is not at all. It is a question of food prices. It is a question of whether grain can support the family and make money. I agree with the economist Zhang Wuchang: “As long as food prices are high enough, you can plant rice on the road.†When crops are lost, farmers will invest less, harvest less, and even eat only their own food. More and more land is being reclaimed. If this phenomenon continues to spread, China’s food security will not be able to guarantee problems.
To ensure that China's grain does not have any problems, we must start by improving the enthusiasm of farmers in farming. On the one hand, we should increase the subsidy for farmers to farm, and on the other hand, we must appropriately increase the price of grain purchases. At the same time, we must coordinate the various markets and control the seeds. The price of materials such as fertilizers, pesticides, and pesticides will make farmers no longer lose money in farming. Do not wait until the farmer farms land without any profit, and then resort to remedial measures.
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